OCTOBER SURPRISE 1980 (1968)

I remember waiting for a bus with my friend Gary Evans Murakami at Van Ness by the Jack Tar Hotel, when word came down that President Carter had made an early concession on election night 1980. I was angry about that—first, that he had been defeated*—but second, that he had conceded before the polls had closed on the West Coast. I felt that his action would almost certainly impact some of the House and Senate seats.

I won’t include it here, but I wrote a five thousand word letter to professor Gary Sick in 1991 about the October Surprise in the 1980 presidential campaign. I know that it’s been discounted by the press, and it’s dropped off the radar screen of general interest; but I’m convinced that there was—and still is—a significant story.

The issue was not Vice Presidential candidate Bush’s going to Paris. That was a straw man—easily demolished—and effective in shutting down the investigative reporting.

What actually happened – and it has to be true, because it was stipulated by all the participants— was a meeting in Washington D.C. at the L’Enfant Plaza Hotel, on October 2, 1980 with Richard Allen, Laurence Silberman and Robert McFarlane. Somebody claiming to represent the Iranian government offered to free the hostages to a President Reagan if the new government would sell arms to Iran to assist them in their war with Iraq. This meeting was never reported to the Secretary of State, though Silberman, as a former ambassador, knew that the law required him to do so. He later asserted the offer had not been credible.

Laurence Silberman is now a senior judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. His was the deciding vote which overturned the conviction of Oliver North for his illegal activities in the Iran-Contra affair (which incidentally did not divert the largest amount of money to the Contras from the sale of arms to Iran, but instead set up secret Swiss bank accounts, whose purpose was to fund a permanent secret plumbers unit without Congressional oversight-- still an unaccounted-for fund).

The person who claimed to represent the government of Iran made offers that were eventually kept— and the hostages were released the actual minute Reagan was sworn in as President on January 20, 1981— 76 days after the election. Former Iranian President Beni Sadr claimed that the Reagan election campaign didn't want the hostages released until Reagan was sworn in, so that Carter would be denied any credit for their release. So were they held another 76 days just for spite? (During the last primary season, Rudy Guiliani citied the Iran hostages’ release on Inauguration Day as a prime example of Reagan’s influence and greatness.)

They were offered a deal— the terms of which were honored by both sides. Yet they claimed they had not accepted the deal. Is that credible? You decide.

It parallels what happened in 1968. And some of the same people were involved. The Paris Peace Conference was boycotted by President Thieu at the request of Madame Chenault, (wife of General Chenault of the "Flying Tigers") who stated on A&E's "Secret Biography of Richard Nixon" aired 2/19/91, that she did so at the behest of the Election Campaign for Richard Nixon. She persuaded President Thieu that he would receive better peace terms under a President Nixon than under a President Humphrey. Had it been reversed, would Republicans call this treason?

This episode was mentioned by Richard Allen on an NPR call-in show 4/17/91, though, he said it was an example of how "you cannot control people who work for campaigns and then go off the transom on their own initiative." That's how he also described the meeting on October 2, 1980. (I happened to call in and ask a question. Have you ever wondered why many people on call-in shows sound rather flustered and stupid when they ask their question? In my case I used my speed dial about 300 times before I got through and had my question screened. I was put on hold for about half an hour. Then without any warning, I was on the air. It sure would have helped if someone had given a five or ten second notice.)

Remember, almost half the names on the Vietnam Memorial in Washington were added after the election of Richard Nixon, who had his "secret plan" to end the Vietnam War. Did Madame Chenault's mission at the behest of Nixon's Campaign Committee actually block an earlier settlement of the war? We will never know. Former Secretary of State Cyrus Vance's obituary in the NY Times cited this episode as one of the major frustrations and disappointments of his life.

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Tonight is the Vice-Presidential Debate between Senator Biden and Governor Palin. That should be fascinating! They had the first Presidential Debate last week after all. Although there wasn’t a knockout, I think Obama did pretty well.

*Carter has the reputation of being a much better ex-president than president. I contend he was a much better president than people give him credit, certainly in the area of developing alternate fuels. I think he was ahead of any of his successors. One of the first things Reagan did in office was to remove the solar panels from the White House. I’m sure that was because Nancy didn’t like the aesthetics; but think how much further along we’d be if Carter had been reelected in 1980. Carter is blamed for the terrible inflation in the late 1970’s. But he inherited that from Nixon and Ford, especially as a result of the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Inflation was finally whipped (to use Ford’s term) and credit is generally given to Paul Volcker -- appointed by? You guessed it: President Jimmy Carter.

THERE YOU GO AGAIN!

This Friday was supposed to be the first of three Presidential Debates with the actual candidates. (I forget how many debates there were during the primary season—too many, I think.) But it now looks as if Friday’s debate may be postponed at the request of the McCain campaign because of the current financial crisis (and dare I say, could it be his lack of preparation?) At the moment, Obama and the Presidential Debate Commission still want to go ahead with Friday's debate.

Debates can be critical in determining election results. It certainly was in 1980. There were actually two debates: one between Governor Reagan and Rep. John Anderson * (the Nader-like spoiler candidate in my opinion), and a single debate between President Carter and Governor Reagan on October 28** in Cleveland, Ohio- just days before the election. About the only thing most people remember about that single debate was Reagan’s clever retort: “There you go again.” Curiously, when I printed out the transcript of the complete debate, I couldn’t find the quote anywhere. I thought I recalled that it was in response to President Carter’s comment about health care. But I carefully scanned the complete transcript and could not locate Reagan’s aside. Evidently, whoever prepared the transcript for the Commission on Presidential Debates didn’t consider an aside worthy of inclusion. But again, that is probably the only thing even political junkies remember about the 1980 debate.

“Ironically, the Carter campaign had pursued a debate with Reagan because they thought it would give the president a chance to display his great command of complex issues, and that Reagan might stumble or look confused. Only when the Reagan camp saw how tight the race was did they agree to debate at all.

They were glad they did. Rather than sounding dangerous or overwhelmed, Reagan calmly brushed aside Carter’s attacks, shaking his head and saying, ‘There you go again.’ As Carter speechwriter and journalist Hendrik Hertzberg put it, ‘When people realized that they could get rid of Carter and still not destroy the world, they went ahead and did it.’ ” Quotation from transcript of PBS American Experience on Jimmy Carter

In the paper "Quips, Jokes, and Power: Humor as Weapon in Presidential Campaigns,” Reagan’s comment is featured as a major example. “Near the end of the debate, Carter concluded an answer on Medicare in which he iterated his support for such programs by saying, ‘These are the kind of elements of a national health insurance, important to the American People. Governor Reagan again, typically, is against such a proposal.’ After the moderator called on him, Reagan chuckled briefly as he turned to Carter and delivered the now classic line, ‘There you go again.’ Then Reagan laughed a second time as the audience laughed with him.” Michael A Krasner, Associate Professor Dept. of Political Science, Queens College, City University of New York, September 1, 2004.

The real issue and the scandal, however, is that the Reagan campaign had acquired President Carter’s briefing book. They knew in advance the major points Carter was going to make. So they had the opportunity to prepare reasoned responses to the President’s attacks when they had reasonable answers. And if they didn’t have a reasonable response, well, they had a clever retort all set to go – something that deflected the issue and made Carter sound mean spirited. People don’t remember what Reagan’s aside was in response to, they only remember how calm and friendly he seemed. They don’t know or even care that the Reagan campaign cheated with a stolen briefing book. I think I’ve figured out who might have been able to acquire the briefing book for the Reagan campaign, but I hesitate to name him since I don’t have direct proof. Let me just say I think it was someone on the U.S. National Security Council who had ties to George H.W. Bush going back to his CIA days, and later became an ambassador.

(Think how Mike Dukkakis might have answered Bernard Shaw’s trick question about Kitty Dukkakis as a rape victim, if he had had a similar heads up about the question. He could have dramatically exclaimed that he would want to hammer the guy, strangle him with his bare hands…. but….we live in a society of laws, not men, and that the law would have to take its course. Or something like that – at least better than the perceived cold, unfeeling response he actually delivered, when he was attempting to be measured, calm and probably presidential.)

The possibly treasonous scandal of the 1980 election, however, had already occurred in early October – weeks before the Presidential Debate. I’ll write about that on its 28^th anniversary— this October 2^nd.

* Rand, a colleague at work, mentioned that President Carter declined to attend the first debate in 1980 and that Governor Reagan went ahead anyway and had it with Rep. John Anderson -- but left Carter's empty chair on stage. It will be interesting to see how Friday's debate plays out if McCain stays away and Obama has the stage to himself. Republicans, I'm sure, will be critical of Obama for going ahead, despite the Reagan precedent.

* *Anniversary of the Battle of the Milvian Bridge between Constantine and Maxentius in Rome in 312 C.E., one of the major turning points in world history. Coincidentally, also the anniversary of Mussolini’s March on Rome 1n 1922.